{"id":1937,"date":"2023-11-25T22:27:29","date_gmt":"2023-11-25T21:27:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nosrevolutions.fr\/?p=1937"},"modified":"2025-05-21T16:48:26","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T14:48:26","slug":"en-debat-elections-europeennes-de-2024-ne-pas-se-tromper-denjeu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nosrevolutions.fr\/en\/2023\/11\/25\/en-debat-elections-europeennes-de-2024-ne-pas-se-tromper-denjeu\/","title":{"rendered":"En d\u00e9bat. \u00c9lections europ\u00e9ennes de 2024\u00a0: ne pas se tromper d\u2019enjeu"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes de juin 2024, il est utile de revenir d\u2019une part sur les \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes pass\u00e9es, afin de rappeler les dynamiques de long terme \u00e0 l\u2019\u0153uvre, et d\u2019autre part de rappeler les couleurs politiques actuelles des gouvernements des \u00c9tats membres, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que cela a une importance essentielle dans les institutions europ\u00e9ennes. Ces donn\u00e9es sont en effet utiles pour \u00e9clairer l\u2019importance \u00e0 accorder au r\u00e9sultat \u00e0 venir de l\u2019\u00e9lection, en tout cas au niveau europ\u00e9en, et pour d\u00e9terminer quelle campagne mener.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europ\u00e9ennes : \u00e0 la fin, c\u2019est la droite qui gagne<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Int\u00e9ressons-nous donc aux r\u00e9sultats1<\/a><\/sup> des neuf pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle de l\u2019UE, en comparant les r\u00e9sultats de la gauche (\u00e9quivalant \u00e0 la \u00ab NUPES \u00bb, soit les membres des groupes Gauche unitaire europ\u00e9enne, o\u00f9 si\u00e8gent LFI et le PCF, Verts, o\u00f9 si\u00e8ge EELV\/Les \u00c9cologistes, et Socialistes et d\u00e9mocrates, o\u00f9 si\u00e8ge le PS) et de la droite (les autres groupes), en termes de si\u00e8ges au Parlement europ\u00e9en :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On constate que la gauche n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 majoritaire au Parlement europ\u00e9en que lors d\u2019une seule l\u00e9gislature : apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections de 1989. En outre depuis, ses r\u00e9sultats ne font que diminuer (\u00e0 l\u2019exception du l\u00e9ger sursaut de 2014). Et les sondages actuels2<\/a><\/sup> n\u2019invitent gu\u00e8re \u00e0 l\u2019optimisme, puisqu\u2019\u00e0 6 mois du scrutin, le rapport gauche\/droite est de l\u2019ordre de 35 % des si\u00e8ges pour la gauche et 60 % pour la droite ; un r\u00e9sultat peu ou prou similaire \u00e0 celui de 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par ailleurs du fait du fonctionnement des institutions europ\u00e9ennes, la composition des diff\u00e9rents gouvernements p\u00e8se beaucoup. Ceux sont eux qui nomment les commissaires europ\u00e9ens3<\/a><\/sup>, seuls \u00e0 disposer du droit d\u2019initiative l\u00e9gislative4<\/a><\/sup>.  A l\u2019inverse, la composition du Parlement europ\u00e9en a moins d\u2019influence car il n\u2019a pas le droit d\u2019initiative l\u00e9gislative5<\/a><\/sup>, mais uniquement celui d\u2019amender. Ajoutons qu\u2019il ne peut pas modifier les trait\u00e9s6<\/a><\/sup>, tr\u00e8s contraignants, notamment en mati\u00e8re \u00e9conomique et budg\u00e9taire. Qu\u2019en est-il de ces diff\u00e9rents gouvernements ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

27 gouvernements de l\u2019UE : \u00e7a penche tr\u00e8s fort \u00e0 droite<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

On peut distinguer ici quatre cas de figures :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Les gouvernements de gauche  <\/strong><\/td>3<\/td>Espagne, Malte, Portugal<\/td><\/tr>
Les gouvernements de \u00ab grande coalition \u00bb (au moins un parti de gauche alli\u00e9 avec au moins un parti de droite)<\/strong><\/td>6<\/td>Allemagne, Autriche, Belgique, Danemark, Estonie, Slov\u00e9nie<\/td><\/tr>
  Les gouvernements de droite  <\/strong><\/td>12<\/td>Bulgarie, Chypre, Croatie, France, Gr\u00e8ce, Irlande, Lituanie, Luxembourg, Pays-Bas, Pologne, Roumanie, Tch\u00e9quie<\/td><\/tr>
Les gouvernement d\u2019extr\u00eame-droite, ou de coalition droite\/extr\u00eame-droite  <\/strong><\/td>6<\/td>Finlande, Hongrie, Italie, Lettonie,  Slovaquie, Su\u00e8de<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On constate donc que l\u2019\u00e9quilibre des gouvernements des pays membres de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne penche tr\u00e8s clairement \u00e0 droite, ce qui impacte la composition de la Commission europ\u00e9enne, et donc le contenu des lois propos\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment aborder l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance europ\u00e9enne ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Dans ces conditions, les gauches europ\u00e9ennes sont confront\u00e9es \u00e0 un dilemme. D\u2019une part, la victoire de la gauche au Parlement europ\u00e9en (et donc au niveau r\u00e9ellement concern\u00e9 par l\u2019\u00e9lection) est tr\u00e8s peu envisageable. D\u2019autre part m\u00eame si la gauche l\u2019emportait au Parlement europ\u00e9en, le fonctionnement des institutions europ\u00e9ennes, avec le poids disproportionn\u00e9 octroy\u00e9 \u00e0 la Commission, emp\u00eacherait la transformation de cette victoire en mesures concr\u00e8tes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aussi, il convient de ne pas se tromper de campagne : il n\u2019y a pas d\u2019enjeu au niveau europ\u00e9en, au sens o\u00f9 aucune politique diff\u00e9rente de celle men\u00e9e jusque-l\u00e0 n\u2019est malheureusement \u00e0 attendre apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections, compte tenu des rapports de force actuels. Dans ces conditions, \u00ab vendre du r\u00eave \u00bb lors d\u2019une campagne peut \u00eatre, sur le long terme, vecteur d\u2019abstention en alimentant l\u2019id\u00e9e que \u00ab quoi qu\u2019on vote, le r\u00e9sultat est le m\u00eame avant et apr\u00e8s \u00bb. Combien d\u2019\u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9es en pr\u00e9tendant qu\u2019on aurait par la suite une \u00ab autre Europe \u00bb, qui n\u2019est jamais arriv\u00e9e ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tirons enfin quelques conclusions, en ne faisant pas semblant de croire que les propositions ambitieuses d\u00e9fendues au cours de la campagne \u00e0 venir pourraient \u00eatre mises en \u0153uvre dans les ann\u00e9es suivantes, puisque la victoire \u00e9lectorale est quasiment exclue. La gauche devrait pouvoir dire clairement que cette \u00e9lection n\u2019est qu\u2019un outil pour mener le d\u00e9bat politique, et que les mesures \u00e0 mettre en place pour une transformation sociale de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne ne pourront l\u2019\u00eatre que par d\u2019autres biais que l\u2019\u00e9lection en cours : un nouveau Printemps des peuples7<\/a><\/sup>, des victoires au niveau national d\u2019une gauche type NUPES dans de nombreux pays…. Dans cette perspective, il faudrait donc travailler non pas \u00e0 mener une campagne en pr\u00e9tendant pouvoir l\u2019emporter \u00e0 la fin, mais en insistant sur l\u2019importance de renforcer les structures qui pourront servir pour la suite (partis, pour la conqu\u00eate du pouvoir ; syndicats, pour les mobilisations sociales \u00e0 venir\u2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais dire qu\u2019une \u00e9lection est perdue d\u2019avance, et que l\u2019enjeu est ailleurs est-il possible pour des partis qui ne vivent plus que pour concourir et tenter de gagner des si\u00e8ges en promettant monts et merveilles ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

  1. R\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes au niveau europ\u00e9en en nombre de si\u00e8ges\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/election-results-2019\/fr\/resultats-des-elections\/2019-2024\/<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  2. Sondages pour les \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes de 2024\u00a0: https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sondages_sur_les_%C3%A9lections_europ%C3%A9ennes_de_2024#Projections_en_si%C3%A8ges<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  3. Sur la nomination des commissaires europ\u00e9ens par les gouvernements\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/news\/fr\/faq\/7\/comment-le-president-et-les-membres-de-la-commission-europeenne-sont-ils-nommes<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  4. Sur l’initiative l\u00e9gislative de la Commission europ\u00e9enne\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/factsheets\/fr\/sheet\/25\/la-commission-europeenne<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  5. Sur l’absence de droit d\u2019initiative l\u00e9gislative du Parlement europ\u00e9en\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/factsheets\/fr\/sheet\/19\/le-parlement-europeen-pouvoirs<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  6. Sur la proc\u00e9dure de modification des trait\u00e9s de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne\u00a0: https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/FR\/TXT\/HTML\/?uri=LEGISSUM:ai0013<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  7. Sur la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence historique au Printemps des peuples\u00a0: https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Printemps_des_peuples<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n

    Image d’illustration : Le drapeau europ\u00e9en, par Chabe01<\/a> (CC BY-SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u00c0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes de juin 2024, il est utile de revenir d\u2019une part sur les \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes pass\u00e9es, afin de rappeler les dynamiques de long terme \u00e0 l\u2019\u0153uvre, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":1939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"R\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes au niveau europ\u00e9en en nombre de si\u00e8ges\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/election-results-2019\/fr\/resultats-des-elections\/2019-2024\/<\/a>\",\"id\":\"f34801ab-73b2-44e0-ab98-503e76b5bcee\"},{\"content\":\"Sondages pour les \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes de 2024\u00a0: https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sondages_sur_les_%C3%A9lections_europ%C3%A9ennes_de_2024#Projections_en_si%C3%A8ges<\/a>\",\"id\":\"316f3e5d-11c5-4b5e-9f28-ab8c69f352c2\"},{\"content\":\"Sur la nomination des commissaires europ\u00e9ens par les gouvernements\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/news\/fr\/faq\/7\/comment-le-president-et-les-membres-de-la-commission-europeenne-sont-ils-nommes<\/a>\",\"id\":\"f348437c-d914-4e6c-8082-2ea3dd33b39a\"},{\"content\":\"Sur l'initiative l\u00e9gislative de la Commission europ\u00e9enne\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/factsheets\/fr\/sheet\/25\/la-commission-europeenne<\/a>\",\"id\":\"d7646293-edf9-46e7-a151-1e151d7ac1fa\"},{\"content\":\"Sur l'absence de droit d\u2019initiative l\u00e9gislative du Parlement europ\u00e9en\u00a0: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/factsheets\/fr\/sheet\/19\/le-parlement-europeen-pouvoirs<\/a>\",\"id\":\"c32e8fc6-4804-45f7-be28-195666e6774c\"},{\"content\":\"Sur la proc\u00e9dure de modification des trait\u00e9s de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne\u00a0: https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/FR\/TXT\/HTML\/?uri=LEGISSUM:ai0013<\/a>\",\"id\":\"ad379b7e-d65b-4a02-b7a6-e27e23cfff7d\"},{\"content\":\"Sur la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence historique au Printemps des peuples\u00a0: https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Printemps_des_peuples<\/a>\",\"id\":\"82c0394e-25b2-42e4-ace5-c921888e03eb\"}]"},"categories":[35],"tags":[50,51],"class_list":["post-1937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-debat","tag-europe","tag-gauche"],"yoast_head":"\nEn d\u00e9bat. \u00c9lections europ\u00e9ennes de 2024\u00a0: ne pas se tromper d\u2019enjeu - 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