It’s never easy to understand the present moment, especially when things are accelerating. Calls to block the country on September 10, a vote of confidence two days before: what is happening?
In The Collapse of the Second International, Lenin shows that a situation becomes revolutionary when you have, at the same time, a crisis at the top (the dominant class can no longer cope), and a crisis at the base (the dominated classes no longer want to).He adds that, in general, this kind of moment is underpinned by the worsening of social distress, and sees the intensification of popular activity; the masses decide they will no longer put up with it and take action.
As such, these formulas are algebraic, extremely general and abstract. We need to say what they mean in the context of France today.
Crisis at the top: power is unbalanced to the point of failing to fulfill its governmental duties.This can take the form of the rejection of a budget or, more seriously, a partial vacancy of the executive (in the event of a motion of no confidence or a refusal of confidence) or of the legislature (in the event of a dissolution). The situation can develop into a more general vacancy, for example, if the President of the Republic is dismissed in addition to the censure of the government.
Crisis at the base: a social movement occurs that is strong enough to challenge the control of public facilities, businesses, or infrastructures, or to defeat the basic mechanisms of administrative continuity, such as the collection of a particular tax.The strike and the blockade are generally the two main pillars of this crisis, and in modern capitalist societies, the street demonstration is its fundamental nourishment.
It is not uncommon for the top or the base to enter into crisis, but generally, they do so separately.When Macron threw himself into the dissolution of the National Assembly like a damned soul throwing himself into the flames, or when the motion of no confidence brought down the Barnier government, the power of the bourgeoisie held, because at that moment, no class came on stage to replace it. Despite its difficulties, the Élysée had a free hand to recover. Conversely, when the Yellow Vests or opponents of the pension reform invaded the street, power was not vacant and was able to mobilize the necessary resources to crush them.
Today, in September 2025, the situation seems to be changing.In any case, the government will fall on September 8, with Bayrou having preferred to leave the scene with his head held high rather than wallowing in the mud of repeated 49-3s. It is impossible to know if this is a personal calculation, or if he is a pawn in a larger strategy (calming the anger of the masses, transferring power to the RN…?). What is certain is that, when the day of mobilization of September 10 arrives, France will no longer have a government, and perhaps no longer a National Assembly either.
This is an opportunity, and at the same time, a first difficulty.The popular exasperation that led to the call for September 10 was motivated by the Bayrou budget. Doesn’t the annihilation of the latter risk annihilating the opposition it provoked? It’s possible, of course.
But the opposite can also happen, provided the movement quickly finds new slogans. The resignation of Macron, who is the subject of widespread collective hatred, is the most obvious.The demands for a price freeze and the maintenance of wages could also naturally impose themselves, since collective exasperation against the privation of purchasing power and free time has been the engine of the movement from the start. Beyond wages, the maintenance of social benefits and the restoration of those that the Macronist governments mutilated can be put on the agenda. This demand makes it possible to mobilize the poorest layers of the country more broadly, but also to undermine a central plank of the RN’s argument (against “welfare dependency”).
At the same time, the involvement of unions can help give the day a proletariancharacter, rooted in wage struggles.Even today, its social base remains unclear, even if the chosen date keeps the most Poujadist social layers at a distance (“on Wednesday, we work,” wrote the Twitter account @NicolasQuiPaie in July).
Of course, it is still possible that Bayrou and Macron will succeed in demobilizing the country. As long as the movement has not taken action, as long as the masses have not tested their strength, their capacity to act and to gather, they can end up hesitating and losing courage, postponing the confrontation until the next time. Then, we return to our personal problems: organizing holidays, filling out papers for the renewal of a residence permit, taking the eldest to work because she hasn’t gotten her driver’s license, the rotten atmosphere at the office or the factory, revising courses at university, etc. Daily life is very full, it easily takes over.
No doubt the executive is, at this very moment, looking for expedients to make the situation tip in this direction: institutional surprise, an agreement with the PS or the RN to govern, anything is possible. Does it have the means for such an initiative? That’s another unknown. No one knows what wheeling and dealing, what every-man-for-himself, what changes in alliances are currently occupying the corridors of the ministerial palaces.
As militants, we must strive to foil this scenario of demobilization but, if it wins, we must take note of it and help the most combative elements to (temporarily) retreat to prevent them from being pulverized.We do not “block” the country’s highways or refineries without the active support of hundreds of thousands, of millions of people. Maintaining the offensive without the protection offered by the strength of numbers would provide the pretext for ferocious repression, both police and judicial, and even the agents and magistrates who have sympathy for the movement would be unable to do anything to deflect the blows.
Conversely, if we manage to converge in the street against the backdrop of the collapse of the governmental apparatus, if we block what we plan to block, many things become possible.Of course, Macron will do everything to keep the initiative: consultations, reshuffle, new legislative elections, perhaps a state of emergency, and at the end of the tunnel, the presidential election. It is essential that the calendar escapes him. At this stage, alas, the movement is undoubtedly not capable of taking power. It has not gone through the trial by fire, and more fundamentally, it has neither assemblies representing everyone, nor a shared platform, which are indispensable conditions for constituting itself as a competing source of sovereignty. Assuredly, the construction of such levers in the struggle is an absolutely top priority, but in the meantime, there is no question of remaining on standby. We must take the initiative, unbalance the institutions on which Macron is perched.
Typically, the call to convene a constituent assembly to break out of the Fifth Republic could play this role.This implies that popular pressure is strong enough to create panic and make the most fragile elements of bourgeois politics give in. The president of the MEDEF, Patrick Martin, is already in the midst of an anxiety attack. For his part, the Macronist deputy Karl Olive is calling for an institutional overhaul (he undoubtedly hopes to save his privileges in the operation). Can their feverishness contaminate the ranks of the bourgeois parties, the leadership of administrations, the senior civil service? It all depends on the balance of power, the level of mobilization and determination in our own ranks, those of the social movement. Will the strike pickets and the blockade collectives be able to seize such a political slogan, will they want to? No one knows, but in the event of success, when the logic of the regime no longer holds and the opposing camp admits that it must be changed, a new historical period is opened. Then, revolution as such is put on the agenda. The problems change in nature; it is no longer a matter of conquering power, but of exercising it, of advancing into the administrative and economic storm created by the crisis.
This democratic orientation of the struggle can make it possible to bring the people together in their very large majority, to temporarily break away from the corporatisms that undermine major battles; but contrary to the idea commonly accepted in the anti-liberal movements of the 2010s, the “99%” are not homogeneous, even when facing the “1%.” This motley crowd, diverse in terms of social and economic trajectories as well as political opinions, is full of contradictions. It swings from left to right, from action to prostration, from generosity to selfishness, from courage to cowardice, from equality to privilege. But if there is one universal truth, it is that class struggle improves people.
As long as it stands, the movement will turn red, because it will clash with the guardians of the social order and the forces of money. The latter are morbidly attached to their privileges and, as such, abhor the collective initiative of the people. They rarely hesitate to show it, which allows consciousness to progress. Consequently, purchasing power and democratic rights do not constitute the insurmountable horizon of the struggle; once you have understood who the enemy is and how to fight them, you want more. It is up to Marxists, activists for social progress, and revolutionaries of all stripes to fuel it with collectivist perspectives: the expropriation of large private property, the generalization of social security, the institution of inalienable commons, etc. Then, the movement will emerge from its democratic chrysalis to frankly, openly claim social revolution.
Illustration image: « Le sourire de Bayrou », photograph from May 1st, 2012, by Sylke Ibach (CC BY-NC 2.0)
English (UK) 
Français